How much cheaper could fuel be in November?

A fuel levy cut sounds like the sort of news that should make the next trip to the pump noticeably cheaper. November is a little less generous once the monthly fuel calculation enters the picture.

Petrol receives temporary levy relief of R1.50 per litre from November 4, while diesel receives R3 per litre. The relief is confirmed, but your final November price still depends on the monthly fuel adjustment.

The levy cut does not equal the pump cut

The latest Central Energy Fund snapshot from October 27 showed under-recoveries of R1.27 per litre for 93 petrol and R1.12 for 95 petrol. Once the R1.50 levy relief is applied, the indicative reduction works out at about 23c per litre for 93 and 38c for 95.

Diesel looks more noticeable on the same snapshot. The indicative reduction was about R1.57 per litre for 0.05% diesel and R1.65 for 0.005%, although the final price paid at a service station will depend on the published November adjustment and retailer pricing.

A R1.50 petrol levy cut does not automatically become R1.50 off the price you pay. October’s under-recovery absorbs much of the relief before the November adjustment reaches your receipt.

Inland and coastal prices differ

Your location still counts. Inland and coastal pump prices are not identical, which means the same cents-per-litre adjustment will not produce one national petrol price.

The reason comes from South Africa’s fuel-pricing formula, where international product prices, the rand, levies, margins and transport costs feed into the monthly calculation. A projected inland price should never be treated as the coastal price with a new label slapped on it.

Understanding why petrol prices do not always follow oil prices

For consumers trying to understand where petrol prices are heading, it is useful to look beyond the oil price alone.

Flip the MarketKara Louw

What it means for your own tank

If the current petrol projections survive the final calculation, a 50-litre fill would cost roughly R11.50 less on 93 or R19 less on 95 than it would at October prices. Your saving depends on how many litres you buy, not the size printed on the tank.

November’s figures are still projections until the official adjustment is published. Oil prices, the rand and other pricing components could alter the final result before November 4.

A small petrol cut may barely change your monthly spend, while diesel could make a bigger difference. Multiply your usual litres by the final cents-per-litre cut to see what November means for your budget. The saving depends on how much fuel you buy.