December-and-January fraud spike: what’s trending and why it works
December-and-January fraud is less about clever tech and more about rushed decisions. Knowing the patterns is often enough to reduce the chance of begin scammed.
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Mariana Balt
The festive season, December 15 - January 15, is peak time for fake checkout pages and bargain traps that look legit on your feed, then empty your card when you tap “pay”.
The same pressure tactics also spill into crypto traps and wallet phishing, especially when “end-of-year gains” chat starts circulating in group chats and comment sections.
South Africa’s fraud bodies have been blunt about the pattern: digital banking fraud is now the biggest channel, and it is being driven mainly by social engineering, not bank systems being “hacked”.
What’s trending right now
1) Card-not-present fraud (online card payments). This is the boring name behind the messy reality: your card details are used on a site or payment page where you never physically tap the card. SABRIC’s 2024 stats show card-not-present fraud remains the dominant card threat, with gross card fraud losses rising year on year.
2) Smishing and vishing that copy bank language. Fraudsters push links via SMS, then follow with a phone call posing as a “fraud department” to pressure you into sharing a one-time pin or approving a transaction. SABRIC describes this exact chain in its reporting and consumer guidance.
3) SIM swap support acts. The scam is rarely only a SIM swap. It is often the second step, after someone has tricked you into handing over enough info to hijack your number and intercept OTPs. SABRIC and Banking Association guidance both flag this behaviour.
4) Fake courier and parcel delivery messages. December is delivery month, which makes “missed delivery” links and “customs fee” demands land at the worst possible time. Banks are warning shoppers about phishing, smishing, and impersonation spikes around festive shopping.
5) AI-assisted impersonation. The scary part is not sci-fi deepfakes. It is how small boosts (better written phishing, more convincing voice calls, sharper fake storefronts) push more people over the line. SABRIC has specifically warned about AI-driven scams rising during the festive season.
Festive fraud is not clever code beating bank security. It is criminals pushing you into a rushed decision, then collecting the result. If you can slow the decision down, even by 60 seconds, the scam often falls apart.
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Why does it work on South African millennials?
Millennials sit in the crossfire of “everything digital” and “everything urgent”. Payments are one tap, shopping is social, and work messages never stop. Scammers choose moments when attention is split, and dopamine is doing the driving.
SABRIC’s 2024 figures underline the core issue: digital banking fraud dominated reported incidents, and the growth was linked to social engineering and human error, not technical compromise of banking platforms.
This festive season, urgency is the scam. The “deal” is often only the delivery mechanism.
There’s another local ingredient: end-of-year pressure. Bonuses, travel, family obligations, debit orders, and the annual “I deserve a win” mindset create the perfect conditions for shortcuts. Scammers rely on those shortcuts, and banks keep repeating the same warning for a reason.
The playbook scammers are using
1) Borrowed trust
They copy a bank’s tone, a retailer’s branding, or a courier’s formatting. The goal is to get you to treat the message as routine.
2) Manufactured urgency
Timers, “account blocked” threats, “last chance” discounts, or “delivery failed” prompts. People click to remove the discomfort.
3) One small action
They rarely ask for everything upfront. First click. Then login. Then OTP. Then “confirm” a payment. SABRIC describes how this escalation works in practice.
If someone tries to move you from a public channel into a private one (WhatsApp, Telegram, a phone call), treat that as the moment the scam starts. Legit businesses can prove who they are without dragging you into a back channel.
How to make yourself a harder target this week
Verify out of band. If “your bank” calls, end the call and dial the official number from the back of your card or the bank’s site. SABRIC gives this exact advice.
Stop sharing OTPs, full stop. Banks keep repeating this because it keeps happening. Standard Bank, for example, states it will never ask you to share your OTP.
Treat links as guilty until proven innocent. Type the retailer URL yourself, use your app, or use a bookmark you created. Festive smishing is built on link-clicking.
Reduce the blast radius. Lower card limits for the season, use virtual cards where possible, switch on transaction notifications, and keep a separate card for online spending if you can. (This is less glamorous than a new handbag, and far more useful.)
Lock down your mobile number. SIM swaps are a favourite supporting act. Ask your network about extra SIM swap protections, and tighten security on your email as well, because password resets often go there. SABRIC flags SIM swap risk and OTP interception.
If you get caught...
Move quickly, but not emotionally or in a panic:
- Call your bank using an official number, freeze cards, and flag transactions immediately.
- Screenshot everything (messages, numbers, URLs, proof of payment).
- Report the crime (your bank will advise on the right channel and reference numbers).
- Change passwords from a clean device, starting with email, then banking, then shopping accounts.
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